Jayson Tatum and Robert Williams III
The Boston Celtics return to action and the final third of their season on Thursday February 23rd as they travel to Indianapolis to take on the Pacers. The Celtics head back from the All-Star break barely clinging to the top spot in the East with just a half game lead over the surging Milwaukee Bucks, with the Sixers only two back in the loss column.
The Pacers got off to a hot start this season but have cratered a bit, losing 16 of their last 19 games. They now sit 2.5 games out of the last play-in spot and on a franchise level are counting their ping pong balls in the Victor Wembanyama lottery.
The Celtics biggest question mark lately has been player health. All-star Jaylen Brown is having a huge year, averaging a career high 26.5 points and 7 rebounds per game with 58.5% True Shooting Percentage (TS%) and 4.20 Real Plus Minus (“Player’s estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions.
RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors”). Unfortunately he suffered a facial fracture on February 8th and has not played for the Celtics since. He did get 25 minutes of run at the All-Star game and scored 35, so he should suit up for the Pacers game..
He was far from the only Celtic missing time lately. Marcus Smart (11.1 PPG, team high 7.1 Assists and 1.4 steals per game, got injured on January 21st and missed 11 straight games before returning right before the break vs the Pistons.
Al Horford and Malcolm Brogdon have been in and out of the lineup as well. Even superstar Jayson Tatum missed the Bucks game just before the break.
Despite all the absences, the Celtics have barely missed a beat, they have won seven of their last ten as other players have stepped up. Derrick White scored double figures every game Smart was out, averaging 20.1 PPG and 5.8 APG over that stretch.
Sam Houser went from virtually out of the rotation completely to five straight games with double figures this month including a late three pointer that sent a severely undermanned Celtics team to overtime vs the Bucks on Valentines Day.
The All Star game does not exactly have regular season intensity, thus Brown remains uncertain, but everyone else should play.
Most importantly that will include All-Star game MVP, Jayson Tatum, who is averaging 30.6 PPG on 60.8 TS%, 8.6 RPG, and 4.5 APG, all career highs. He leads the NBA with a 9.76 RPM and 18.57 RPM “Wins”, which factors in a player’s RPM and the number of possessions he has played. He currently is tied for the fourth shortest regular season MVP odds at BetMGM.
The Pacers are in a bit of a rebuild, but they have some excellent players. Tyrese Haliburton made the All Star game and is a budding superstar averaging 10.1 APG and 1.8 Steals per game, good for fourth and third in the league respectively. He also leads the Pacers with 19.9 PPG on 61% TS% to go with a 4.57 RPM.
The Pacers offense is super balanced with Myles Turner, Buddy Hield and rookie Benedict Mathurin all averaging between 17.2 and 17.5 PPG.
Turner leads the team with 8 RPG and 2.3 blocks per game. Mathurin has the second shortest Rookie of the Year odds at BetMGM at +800, though Pablo Banchero at -1200 will win it barring an injury.
Rookie Andrew Nembhard averages 8.1 PPG and 4.2 APG and got to play in the NBA’s Rising Stars game.
The Pacers have an interesting young roster, but for the Celtics, the future is right now. No odds are out quite yet on the game.
Assuming most everyone plays, the respective team offensive and defensive efficiencies and tempos suggest the Celtics will open as roughly 9 point favorites with a Total of about 231.
There are of course many variables. Both teams will have gone eight days since they last took the court. Will the squads come in well-rested or flat and out of synch from the break? Who will actually suit up? Smart made a point of getting in a game right before the break, so he will certainly go. Horford presumably will too.
Brown will likely see shortened minutes. If any team can withstand the loss of star players, it is the Celtics. Last season, Boston caught fire right after the break and won 13 of 15 on the way to a run to the NBA Finals. They have pretty much the same group now and should have their way with the Pacers.
What is the case for the Pacers to at least cover the number? They actually beat the Celtics in Boston in their one meeting so far this season, if you are a Bay State you are going to be able to take advantage of the BetMGM Massachusetts Bonus Code and lock in their first bet welcome bonus in march. Indy got up 42-22 after a quarter and 71-43 at the half and then hung on for a 117-112 upset.
Haliburton went off for 33 points and 8 assists and the Celtics got very little outside of 41 from Tatum and 19 from Brown.