We are now just days away from the kickoff of the 2022 NCAAF season. With the new season, the AP Week 1 Poll just dropped. There are no surprises at the top of the list, filled with the perennial contenders for the College Football Playoffs. 

Let’s break down the contenders and pretenders of the top 10. With so much volatility in the College Football season, we’ll cut through the noise to see who will be at the top and who will falter when all is said and done. 

The Contenders: My picks for the College Football Playoff

Alabama

There’s not much to say about Bama that hasn’t already been said. They’ve been the model of consistency for close to 2 decades. In 2022, their talent will be as high as ever as they are returning the reigning Heisman winner, Byce Young. 

Of course, playing an SEC schedule is no easy task, even for Bama. The Tide lost to a former Saban assistant for the first time in his tenure, when they lost to the Jimbo Fisher led Texas A&M. Despite the let down, Bama rallied to win the SEC over Georgia. Georgia got the last laugh, though, as Kirby Smart (another former assistant) and the Bulldogs beat Bama in the College Football Championship.

Bama’s culture of consistency and talent will have them at the top of the polls, despite the let down in the championship last year. I’m expecting the Tide to make their 8th College Football Playoffs and contend for yet another national championship.

Ohio State

The Buckeyes enter 2022 with the Heisman favorite, CJ Stroud, under center. In Head Coach Ryan Day’s 4th full season, Ohio State is well-positioned to return to the CFP. Ohio State was left out of the BIG 10 championship game and the CFP after they lost to long-time rival Michigan.

The BIG 10 West is not expected to be the juggernaut it has in year’s past. Ohio State should have a clear road to the BIG 10 Championship game and the College Football Playoffs. 

Georgia 

The defending national champions enter 2022 3rd in the AP Poll. Georgia should breeze through the SEC East. But, that will land them a date with Bama in the SEC Championship game. Last year, Bama got the best of Georgia in Atlanta, but the Dogs still found themselves in the CFP. 

Teams like Georgia, with their pedigree and talent, can sustain a loss and still make the CFP. Georgia’s path to the CFP should be wide open in 2022, as long as they take care of business and sweep the weaker SEC East. 

Clemson

For most teams, 10 wins and a bowl game win would be a great season. However, for Clemson, swapping the CFP for the Cheez-It bowl was a huge downgrade. Riddled with injuries and transfers, the 2021 Tigers had an uncharacteristically bad year. Now, 3rd year QB DJ Uiagalelei looks to be maturing and is poised to take a big leap in 2022. Clemson will go as far as Uiagalelei takes them. And with a full offseason to develop, I’m expecting him to live up to his potential and bring the Tigers back to the CFP. 

The Pretenders: Be wary of these teams getting a lot of preseason love

Notre Dame

The Irish had a tumultuous offseason with the sudden departure of Head Coach Brian Kelly. Now, first time head coach Marcus Freeman is at the helm. He, along with 2nd year QB Tyler Buchner, have a daunting 2022 schedule ahead of them; highlighted by games at Ohio State and at USC. Normally, teams can sustain a loss and make it up by winning their conference championship game. The Irish don’t have that luxury and will face an uphill battle to crack the top 4. 

8. Michigan 

Head coach Jim Harbaugh finally exorcized his Ohio State demons by beating their rival in The Big House. In 2022, the Wolverines are riding the wave of their first ever CFP berth to a top 10 preseason ranking. Michigan should have a solid season, but I don’t have a ton of confidence in the Harbaugh led team until he proves he can consistently beat the likes of Michigan St, Penn State and Ohio State.

9. Oklahoma

The Sooners enter 2022 on the heels of an offseason field with distractions. The first came when HC Lincoln Riley announced he was leaving for USC. Shortly after, the Sooners QB Caleb Williams announced he’d be following Riley to LA. With a new coach, QB and a move to the SEC looming, I’m expecting Oklahoma to falter in a tough BIG 12 schedule.