Ahead of UFC 284, we take a look at the odds, and predictions for the main card
Even though it’s still more than a week away, it looks like UFC 284, the promotion’s second pay-per-view of 2023, will be worth the wait. On February 11, featherweight king Alexander Volkanovski will face the lightweight king Islam Makhachev in a massive champion versus champion fight in Perth, Australia.
Although any bout between two reigning champions inside the Octagon is noteworthy, this one is especially so because Volkanovski (25-1) is the undisputed best pound-for-pound fighter in the world, with Makhachev (23-1) not far behind.
Makhachev is favoured by the oddsmakers to defeat Volkanovski, perhaps due to the Russian’s size advantage in the Octagon. However, Volkanovski also benefits from a number of factors working in his favor, including possessing a well-rounded skill set. It may go either way in this bout.
There are more flashy forwards than Alexander Volkanovski. He isn’t out there getting knockouts like Yair Rodrguez or Anderson Silva in his peak. Don’t be fooled, though. His striking is among the most potent, and he has a reliable arsenal to back it up. If he didn’t, no one would consider him the best athlete in his weight class.
A look at the stats reveals Volkanovski’s methodical approach to the strike zone. The percentage of his significant strikes that connect is high, at 57% per minute, and he averages landing 6.9 per minute. And he lands a lot of his throws, too. And as the Australian showed against “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung and Chad Mendes, it may lead to a stoppage when it does. When it doesn’t result in a knockout, it usually translates to a decision victory, like the ones he took against Brian Ortega and Max Holloway.
Islam Makhachev won the lightweight championship by submitting Charles Oliveira with an arm-triangle choke in the second round, and this fight should tell you everything you need to know about his submission skills. The fact that he earned the belt through submission is not as impressive as the quality of his opponents. Oliveira, a BJJ blackbelt with an impressive resume, holds the record for most submission victories in UFC history.
However, Makhachev’s skills in the art of submitting weren’t exactly hidden. The sambo expert has previously won ten fights via submission, including against Dan Hooker, Thiago Moises, and Drew Dober. We had no doubts about his talent. What’s become very evident is that he is potentially the most serious submission threat in the weight class.
Volkanovski is one of the most composed and disciplined fighter in the game today, where he’s always following a systematic path to victory and manages to stay controlled even when in trouble. Every strike that he throws has a definite purpose behind it, and he wastes no movement. Another trait that separates Volkanovski from the rest is his perfect body posture and balance. Alongside city kickboxing teammate and middleweight champion Israel Adesanya, Volkanovski has mastered and implemented the art of ‘micro-feints’ with adroit.
In addition to that, he is fearless in his approach, and almost difficult to finish- much like the ‘Terminator’. Take the Brian Ortega fight for example. Even though Ortega had Volkanovski in dire straits, where he almost submitted the Aussie with a triangle and guillotine, the Aussie wasn’t afraid to play in T-city’s guard, and landed vicious ground and pound for the remainder of that round.
Islam Makhachev is a much more refined striker, and has some beautiful kicks and striking skills in his arsenal. Islam Makhachev was the dark horse of the lightweight division but is now the freshly crowned UFC lightweight champion.
Makhachev is a master of clinch and body locks. He has a wide array of skills in his arsenal and does not use the usual single or double leg to take down his opponents. The Dagestani realized that Oliveira is dangerous with his guillotine choke attempts. Had he entered his realm with single or double leg attempts, ‘Do Bronx’ would have wrapped his neck. Instead, Makhachev used body locks to take him down and it was in fact his striking that helped him win the fight.
Our Prediction:
If Alexander Volkanovski can stop the initial takedown onslaught, maintain his composure, and land some solid shots eventually, he can get the job done. Unfortunately, Islam Makhachev seems to be on a roll and the size advantage will play a massive factor in the fight.
Main Card (ESPN+ PPV, 10pm EST)
Islam Makhachev (-403) vs. Alexander Volkanovski (+303)
Yair Rodriguez (-160) vs. Josh Emmett (+140)
Randy Brown (+250) vs. Jack Della Maddalena (-300)
Justin Taffa (-133) vs. Parker Porter (+113)
Alonzo Menifield (+170) vs. Jimmy Crute (-200)
Prelims (ABC/ESPN, 8pm EST)
Tyson Pedro (-237) vs. Modestas Bukauskas (+202)
Joshua Culibao (-115) vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan (-105)
Shannon Ross (+270) vs. Kleydson Rodrigues (-320)
Francisco Prado (+230) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (-270)
Early Prelims (UFC Fight Pass, 6pm EST)
Don Shainis (+270) vs. Jack Jenkins (-335)
Loma Lookboonme (-270) vs. Elise Reed (+230)
Shane Young (-234) vs. Blake Bilder (+114)
Elves Brenner (+400) vs. Zubaira Tukhugov (-550)
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