Ahead of UFC Vegas 69, we take a look at the odds, and predictions for the main card
The third week of the UFC’s current eight-week run of Saturday events features a return to the UFC APEX and a fight card headlined by a pivotal and intriguing flyweight bout. Here is a comprehensive look at this weekend’s events. Ahead of the event, we take a look at the odds and predictions.
In this riveting five-round main fight, former title challenger and strawweight champion Jessica Andrade squares up against hot prospect Erin Blanchfield. Andrade replaces her compatriot Taila Santos, making her second appearance in the Octagon this year after dominating Lauren Murphy at UFC 283 in Rio de Janeiro last month. Andrade, a seasoned contender in two categories, brings a different level of aggression and power to the cage than most flyweight competitors, and he hopes to achieve his fourth consecutive victory — and second in 2023 — this weekend.
Blanchfield has earned two victories in each of her first two years on the UFC roster, followed up her successful rookie campaign with tandem finishes in her sophomore season. In June, the 23-year-old submitted veteran JJ Aldrich with an opportunistic guillotine choke, and in November at Madison Square Garden, “Cold Blooded” overpowered Molly McCann, having the beloved British fighter submit to a kimura midway through the opening round.
This weekend’s main event could potentially determine the next challenger for the flyweight championship, depending on Manon Fiorot’s recovery from the surgery she underwent following her victory at UFC 280 in October. Champion Valentina Shevchenko is scheduled to defend her title early in the month of February. A decisive victory for either lady would solidify their status as possible opponents for Shevchenko and further clarify the hierarchy of the 125-pound weight class.
Odds: Andrade is the -140 favorite, while Blanchfield is the +115 underdog.
Our prediction: Blanchfield has showed promise in her previous appearances but we think she will have her hands full, especially going against a veteran like Andrade. We pick Andrade by TKO in the second or third round.
In Saturday’s co-main event, at light heavyweight, Jordan Wright fights recent TUF finalist Zac Pauga, who are both headed in opposite directions.
Wright jumps up to the 205-pound division after a three-fight losing streak and a difficult 1-4 record at middleweight. He won his promotional debut against Ike Villanueva at light heavyweight and views the transition in weight class as an opportunity to once again demonstrate the abilities and technical ability that led to each of his 12 career stoppage victories.
Mohammed Usman defeated Pauga in the heavyweight division finals of The Ultimate Fighter, Season 30, Heavyweight Division. A former NFL running back, the Elevation Fight Team member was always anticipated to return to the 205-pound class, in which he went 5-0 before appearing on the long-running reality television series.
Saturday’s fight is an opportunity for both men to change the opinions fans may have of them based on their recent performances and, perhaps, launch a successful run inside the Octagon. The styles of Wright and Pauga are radically different, so it will be intriguing to observe which guy is able to set the terms of engagement and exert control over the outcome of this match.
In the heavyweight division, Josh Parisian welcomes Jamal Pogues for the first time to the Octagon. both competitors have achieved a pair of DWCS victories.
Before joining the UFC, Parisian won on Season 2 and Season 4, with a stint on The Ultimate Fighter sandwiched in between, for a 13-3 record. Since his debut near the end of 2020, he has alternated victories and losses, but enters Saturday’s race off a come-from-behind victory over Alan Baudot.
The rookie Pogues won in Season 3 and Season 6, securing his spot on the sport’s grandest stage with a unanimous decision victory over Paulo Renato Jr. last fall. The Las Vegas native was a highly touted prospect early in his career, and his two defeats have come against strong opponents; he’s also only 27 years old, making him a heavyweight infant.
This is a pivotal bout for both men, as Frenchman seeks to maintain his momentum and Pogues makes his UFC debut looking to make an impact. Whichever can best utilize this advantage on Saturday should emerge victorious. Parisian is the most physically imposing of the two, but Pogues will have the edge in athleticism.
UFC Vegas 69 Odds
Flyweight: Jessica Andrade (-140) vs. Erin Blanchfield (+120)
Light Heavyweight: Jordan Wright (+230) vs. Zac Pauga (-275)
Heavyweight: Josh Parisian (+205) vs. Jamal Pogues (-245)
Light Heavyweight: William Knight (-115) vs. Marcin Prachnio (-105)
Lightweight: Jim Miller (+190) vs. Alexander Hernandez (-225)
UFC Fight Night Props
Method of Victory (via gamingtoday.com)
Andrade by KO/TKO (+130 on DraftKings)
Andrade by submission (+500 on DraftKings)
Andrade by decision (+550 on DraftKings)
Blanchfield by KO/TKO (+700 on DraftKings)
Blanchfield by submission (+500 on DraftKings)
Blanchfield by decision (+330 on DraftKings)
Total Rounds
2.5 (Over -115, Under -115 at DraftKings)
Alternate Total Rounds (DraftKings)
Over 0.5 (-1100), Under 0.5 (+550)
Over 1.5 (-215), Under 1.5 (+160)
Over 3.5 (+120), Under 3.5 (-160)
Over 4.5 (+160), Under 4.5 (-215)
Will Fight Go The Distance?
Yes: +175
No: -250
How Fight Will End
KO/TKO: +100
Submission: +250
Decision: +175
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