Jan 15, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) reacts to a touchdown during the second half in an AFC Wild Card playoff football game against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
With the 2022 NFL season now in the rearview mirror, teams are in full-swing preparation for the upcoming year. As with every season, there is change, and this year will likely see new teams stepping to the forefront and making the postseason that didn’t last January. Several factors, including roster changes, divisional competition, and scheduling, will impact each team’s likelihood of improving enough to qualify for the playoffs after coming up short in 2022.
As the parity-driven league usually sees at least four new playoff teams each year, a look at the teams in order of their probability of making that jump is insightful. It also gives an early idea of potential NFL draft betting odds next season.
The Detroit Lions stand out as having the best shot at making the 2023 playoffs after narrowly missing out with a 9-8 record in 2022. They won eight of their final ten games last season and appear well-positioned to come out on top in a weakened NFC North. With an improved defense and new offensive weapons, such as Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorto, Detroit could win its first division title since the NFC North was formed in 2002.
Not far behind are the New York Jets, who made the biggest offseason splash by trading for quarterback Aaron Rodgers. With Rodgers leading a talented roster that includes playmakers on offense and a top-five defense, the Jets have a strong chance to break their 12-year playoff drought. However, navigating a demanding schedule and competitive AFC East won’t be easy.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are poised to bounce back from a 9-8 campaign with a healthy roster led by quarterback Kenny Pickett’s progress in year two. The Cleveland Browns could also challenge in the AFC North with Deshaun Watson set to play a full season.
In the NFC South, the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints both have new quarterbacks and finished just one game out of first place last season, putting them firmly in the playoff mix in the NFL’s weakest division. With the Buccaneers likely to drop off without Tom Brady, the NFC South is now up for grabs.
Despite bringing in head coach Sean Payton, the Denver Broncos face an uphill battle coming off a disappointing 2022 and must deal with a brutal AFC West that includes Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. The Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams have questions at quarterback with Jordan Love and Matthew Stafford, making their paths to the playoffs uncertain.
The New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, and Washington Commanders could also improve enough to contend for wild card spots in a crowded NFC field. Still, they are longer shots to qualify for the 2023 postseason.
At the bottom of the list are teams like the Chicago Bears, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, and Arizona Cardinals, all with significant obstacles to overcome before they can realistically target a playoff return. Barring unexpectedly quick rebuilds, they will likely miss the postseason again, barring major surprises before next season.
Given the natural churn of NFL rosters and schedules, some teams are clearly better positioned than others to go from sitting out the 2022 playoffs to making the 2023 field. While upsets are inevitable, analyzing roster changes, coaching moves, divisional situations, and schedules provide an early handicapping of which fringe teams are most likely to play into January next season. Those assessments will eventually form the basis of NFL draft betting odds as the 2023 season draws closer.